Mediterranean Quarterly recent issues

Life after Oil: Economic Alternatives for the Arab Gulf States

Peterson, J. E. — 2009-09-16

There have been three economic transformations of the Arab Gulf. Yet the obstacles today remain eerily similar to those of forty years ago. Oil reserves are finite and nonoil resources in the gulf states—minerals, arable land, skilled population, and even capital for some countries—are scarce. Thus the path to economic diversification is especially difficult. While half of the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries enjoy sizable surplus income at present, the other three face immediate requirements for replacing oil income. The various strategies chosen to prepare for a viable economic future differ according to the group, and the task is further complicated by authoritarian regimes and inefficient state planning.

Defense Reform and the Caucasus: Challenges of Institutional Reform during Unresolved Conflict

Wright, G. — 2009-09-16

The attempt of the Georgian government to reform and restructure its military forces in the past ten years demonstrates the difficulty of conducting Western-style defense reform in postconflict states, which have not seen a formal end to armed conflict. Western-style reforms were intended to bring Georgia greater peace, stability, and accountability, with the added benefit of training additional soldiers to support regional peacekeeping operations. Domestic political imperatives within Georgia, however, demanded that the government restore the territorial integrity of the state by "reintegrating" South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Adjara. In this context, additional organizational and doctrinal interoperability of Georgian forces was desirable, but only to the extent that it enabled Georgian forces to meet these primary domestic political requirements. For Georgia, a country with a weak military tradition and unresolved domestic conflicts causing political controversy at home, military reform was not just an abstract step toward democracy but a potential means to an end of resolving those same conflicts by force or threat of force.

Has "Greater" Vanished from the Balkan Vocabulary? Fragmentation and Cohesion in Southeastern Europe

Binder, D. — 2009-09-16

Talk of a "greater" this or that Balkan nation-state has subsided in recent years as the region experienced the creation of ever more minirepublics—a total of eight on the territory of former Yugoslavia. This trend toward fragmentation was initiated by petty nationalists and fostered by the United States and European powers that found it convenient and desirable to dominate and exploit a bunch of fiefdoms. The outside powers reinforced the new system of minirepublics by inviting candidacy in their continental economic organization, the European Union, and their now global security organization, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But is "greater" gone forever from the Balkan vocabulary? It might be prudent not to banish the concept. Think of the phrase of the late Willy Brandt spoken in 1989: "Jetzt wächst zusammen was zusammen gehört"—"Now grows together what belongs together." Applied to the Balkans in coming decades the ethnic Albanians now living in at least five Balkan states and the ethnic Serbs living in five states, as well, are developing growing kinship with their fellow nationals beyond the current frontiers and local allegiances that currently separate them.

Cyprus: Economic Consequences of Reunification

Georgiou, G. C. — 2009-09-16

This essay analyzes the economic consequences of the proposed reunification of Cyprus and concludes that, based on the framework presently being negotiated, the much-publicized economic peace dividend will not materialize for the majority of Cypriots. The economic costs and benefits of such an agreement will inevitably be unequally divided, with the Greek-Cypriot majority bearing the brunt of the economic burden with no political or security offset.

The Gaza War and the Changing Strategic Landscape in the Middle East: An Assessment

Bahgat, G. — 2009-09-16

On 27 December 2008, Israeli forces attacked Gaza to stop missile attacks by Hamas. The military operation lasted twenty-two days and ended with a fragile cease-fire. This study seeks to provide an assessment of all involved parties' stances. The author argues that some parties gained more than others, but the operation dealt a heavy blow to an already fragile peace process. Indeed, the Gaza war has further reinforced the current and growing polarization between the Palestinians and the Israelis. The continuing disagreement between the Palestinian factions and the election of a right-wing Israeli government suggest that the prospects for peace in the foreseeable future are dim.

Carrots, Sticks, and Bombs: The End of Libya's WMD Program

Newnham, R. — 2009-09-16

The question of how to deal with so-called rogue states, especially those trying to obtain weapons of mass destruction (WMD), is currently of central importance to the world. Advocates of military action, who predominated immediately after 9/11, have lost credibility in recent years. Yet they have claimed one clear success: Libya's decision to renounce WMD in late 2003. The Bush administration believed that this decision was based largely on fears of US military action. This essay, in contrast, argues that other factors were crucial, notably the impact of years of economic sanctions and the lure of economic incentives. Thus the Libyan case, far from supporting a military approach to "rogue states," in fact argues for a patient policy of diplomacy and economic carrots and sticks.

Africa: The Piracy Hot Spot and Its Implications for Global Security

Anyu, J. N., Moki, S. — 2009-09-16

The authors contend that the pervasiveness of piracy on the African coasts is threatening global security. Within Somalia, it is causing a disruption of food supplies, fostering internal conflict, and increasing the prices of basic commodities. Globally, it is orchestrating a dramatic rise in maritime insurance premiums and maritime insecurity, disrupting international commerce, increasing the possibility of an environmental disaster, and encouraging a nervous, emerging relationship with terrorism. Piracy must be stopped. To achieve this objective, the authors recommend revamping the international law on piracy, maintaining adequate coastal security along the hot spots on the African coasts, using military force, establishing safe maritime lanes, training crews on security measures, stationing armed guards on ships, and most importantly, reestablishing political stability in Somalia.

Themata Politica -- Hellenic and Euro-Atlantic

Dillery, C. E. — 2009-09-16

Educational Roots of Political Crisis in Egypt

Vallianatos, E. — 2009-09-16

For a New Atlantic Alliance

Minuto-Rizzo, A. — 2009-05-19

The start of the Obama administration offers an opportunity to rebuild the US–NATO transatlantic link on the foundation of shared values during the Cold War and the immediate post–9/11 response. Use of military power is not sufficient, and torture should never again be condoned. Europe and the United States should take the lead in drafting new rules for the global economic order. A renewed NATO is also needed, as is a better relationship with Russia. NATO's eastward expansion to include Georgia and Ukraine makes sense in the long term but should not be pressed now.

Spanish Post-3/11 Antiterror Policy: Zapatero's Tyranny of Circumstance and the Dashing of Good Intentions

Celso, A. N. — 2009-05-19

Elected on a platform of withdrawal from Iraq after the 3/11 train bombings, Spanish socialists sought early on to embark on an antiterrorist policy of negotiation and dialogue with disgruntled Arab and Basque communities. The socialists' early efforts at achieving a historic accord with the Basque separatist organization ETA and its willingness to accommodate and integrate North African diaspora communities have floundered. Faced with repeated terrorist attacks and plots, the socialists have reversed course and have moved decisively toward a more draconian law enforcement model in their prosecution of Basque and Islamist militants.

Greening the Mediterranean: Europe's Environmental Policy toward Mediterranean Neighbors

Lesser, P. — 2009-05-19

Twenty-one countries share the Mediterranean's coastline with no single country responsible for its environmental deterioration or its protection. They are collectively responsible for both. Over four decades, the environmental dimension of Europe's policy toward its Mediterranean neighbors has become increasingly prominent. The central place of environmental projects in the Union for the Mediterranean, launched in July 2008, is the clearest indication of the growing place of the environment in Mediterranean cooperation. Growing public and political awareness of environmental problems in the region argue for a more concerted approach, embracing United Nations, European Union, and national initiatives—and a more "singular" approach to shared challenges.

The Politics of Adjustment and Coordination at the Regional Level: The Basque Country

Royo, S. — 2009-05-19

Is globalization forcing economies that are not coordinated market economies, such as Spain's, to converge on a British-American model? This essay seeks to build on the hypotheses generated by the literature on varieties of capitalism to analyze the challenges of developing and sustaining coordination while adjusting for economic change. In particular, it seeks to explore ways in which subnational factors promote the ability of socioeconomic actors to develop public-private institutions. By focusing on a particular autonomous region of Spain, the Basque Country, this article explores the role of institutional arrangements at the regional level in determining national adjustment. In the Basque Country the relative power and the particular interests of the regional state have been central factors in promoting distinctive patterns of coordination. At the same time, actors' preferences and policy outcomes have been constrained by the differences in the quality and configuration of institutional frameworks, political deals, and the existing economic structure.

Casino Artemis: Gambling on More Than "Northern Cyprus"

Michael, D. — 2009-05-19

New hopes for a final settlement in Cyprus have recently been raised because of the high-powered talks between President Demetrios Christofias of the Republic of Cyprus and Turkish-Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat. This essay considers how a reunified Cyprus might deal with the nearly seventy casinos currently in "Northern Cyprus", especially as both sides of Cyprus forbid gambling. The author argues that with Turkey and private investors pouring millions of investment dollars into "Northern Cyprus", the changing economic reality of the occupied area is leading inevitably to a changed political reality.

European Colonialism and Territorial Disputes in Africa: The Gulf of Guinea and the Indian Ocean

Yoon, M. Y. — 2009-05-19

This essay examines how European colonialism continues to underlie most territorial disputes in Africa. How these disputes have been resolved or are likely to be resolved is described, based on the following four long drawn-out disputes: the Nigeria–Cameroon dispute over the Bakassi Peninsula; the Gabon–Equatorial Guinea dispute over the islands of Mbanié, Cocotiers, and Conga in the Corisco Bay; the Mauritius–United Kingdom dispute over the Chagos Archipelago; and the Comoros–France dispute over Mayotte.

Somalia: Prospects for a Lasting Peace

Dagne, T. — 2009-05-19

In June 2006, the forces of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) took control of Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. During the six-month rule by the ICU, Mogadishu became relatively stable, but efforts to bring peace did not lead to a major breakthrough. On 28 December 2006, Ethiopian troops captured Mogadishu with little resistance from the ICU. The Ethiopian intervention has led to more chaos and instability in Somalia over the past two years. In November 2008, the Ethiopian government announced that its forces would pull out of Somalia by the end of 2008. In June 2008, the Transitional Federal Government and the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), a group dominated by members of the ICU, signed an agreement in Djibouti mediated by United Nations special envoy Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah. The next phase of the Somali conflict is likely to occur between the ARS and al-Shabaab, a group determined to expand its influence and control beyond Mogadishu. Meanwhile, Somali pirates have intensified their attacks in the Gulf of Aden, carrying out attacks on more than ninety commercial ships and successfully hijacking more than thirty-five ships in 2008. The pirates have earned more than $50 million in ransom payments and have released a number of the ships and crew members. The United States, Russia, India, and several other countries have deployed warships to tackle piracy in the Horn of Africa region, although the problem still persists.

Russia, China, and the Energy-Security Politics of the Caspian Sea Region after the Cold War

Hall, G., Grant, T. — 2009-05-19

Increasingly, Central Asia, and specifically the Caspian Sea Basin (CSB), is becoming a crowded place, as government officials and oil interests from European Union countries, the United States, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and elsewhere (including increasingly energy-thirsty India) vie for partnerships with the energy-rich former Soviet republics. Russia lays special claim to what it sees as its "near abroad" (notably, the Caucasus and Central Asia), and its leaders strive to limit US influence over the energy resources of the CSB. China, a global economic power still in ascension, not only works with Russia to counter US influence in the area but also seeks to develop and import more of the region's energy resources to fuel its economic expansion. Both China and Russia aim to curb rising Islamic influence in the region. This essay examines the interests and policies in the CSB of Russia and China, respectively, since the end of the Cold War and their bilateral relationship. While the two countries enjoy a strategic partnership that serves to counter the United States economically, politically, and militarily, lingering mistrust and divergent policy interests could work to limit the extent of this relationship between these two giants of the non-Western world.

The State and Kurds in Turkey: The Question of Assimilation

Dillery, C. E. — 2009-05-19

Yugoslavia: Oblique Insights and Observations

Schindler, S. — 2009-05-19

American Foreign Policy: Types, Choices, Futures, Priorities

Pranger, R. J. — 2009-03-09

A new American president will now confront the extraordinary complexity of his country's foreign policy. Presidents, even without foreign affairs backgrounds, have already formed ideas about basic directions that the nation's international policies should take, and it is these fundamental inclinations to which this essay addresses itself, an essay divided into four parts: (1) types of foreign policy, (2) some recent examples of presidential choices about direction, (3) future possibilities for a new administration that entered office in January 2009, and (4) limitations on the foreign policy choices of the new president—the old bugaboo of priorities.

US Policy toward Kosovo: Sowing the Wind in the Balkans, Reaping the Whirlwind in the Caucasus

Bandow, D. — 2009-03-09

For the past decade, the United States has been promoting national transformation in the Balkans. In pushing the independence of Kosovo, Washington policy makers apparently believed that Serbia would acquiesce, most nations would recognize the newest independent state, and Russia would accept America's decision. None of these assumptions came to pass. Unfortunately, the war in the Caucasus was an inadvertent consequence of US policy in the Balkans. The West acted contrary to international law, violated the sovereignty of another state, and carelessly sacrificed the interests of neighboring states. The point is not that Russia acted correctly or legitimately in Georgia but that American policy makers must learn that actions have consequences, even actions by the US government. They need look no further than from Kosovo to Georgia.

Defining Strategic Priorities: Ballistic Missile Defense, Iran, and Relations with Major Powers

Moss, K. B. — 2009-03-09

The planned deployment of ballistic missile defense systems in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic to defend against possible attack from Iran has stirred strong opposition from Moscow. Concern about Iran's nuclear-enrichment program is legitimate, but the United States must address this issue by reconciling global objectives with regional tensions in the Middle East. If a negotiated solution is found, US policy must consider the reasons behind Iran's program, the dangers of proliferation of nuclear capabilities throughout the Middle East, and the strategic objectives the United States seeks with Russia, China, and Europe.

The Red Line: Pressure and Persuasion in Greek Diplomatic Strategies on Cyprus, 1945 to 2004

Hatzivassilou, E. — 2009-03-09

The negotiating position of an international player is strengthened when it can persuade third parties that it has reached the limits of its concessions. However, from 1945 to 2004 the Greek side (both Athens and Nicosia) managed convincingly to convey this message to the international community only twice: in 1958, prior to the conclusion of the agreements for Cypriot independence, and in 2004, when the Annan Plan was rejected by the Greek-Cypriot community. This failure of the Greek side should be attributed to a combination of maximalism, lack of accurate assessments of the interests and objectives of other actors, and lack of consistency in Greek discourse.

American Universities around the Mediterranean and Beyond: The Case for Support by the Obama Administration

Jackson, R. L. — 2009-03-09

The inauguration of President Barack Obama offers a historic opportunity to reshape America's interface with the world at large and to undo errors of commission, omission, and neglect of the past decade. US assets undervalued and underused in recent years will be rediscovered, including the network of accredited American colleges and universities around the globe: the Association of American International Colleges and Universities. This essay outlines the potential role of these institutions in shaping how the United States is seen in critical areas of the world and in serving as a beacon of American, private, nonprofit higher education. It also contains specific recommendations for how the Obama administration can strengthen, at minimal cost, the network of American institutions abroad without co-opting or using them as vehicles for US propaganda.

The Soft Power of the Ecumenical Patriarchate

Yannas, P. — 2009-03-09

The Ecumenical Patriarchate is considered first among equals of all the Orthodox churches and presides over 200 million Christians. The ecumenical mission of the patriarchate is seriously contested by the official stance of the Turkish government and by ultranationalists who fear that the patriarchate might gain extraterritorial privileges and become a Vatican. At present, the Ecumenical Patriarchate is an institution with a global reach, but one that lacks a legal personality. The essay presents the two contrasting perspectives regarding the ecumenical status of the patriarchate and documents how the sources of the patriarchate's soft power marshal support in favor of its ecumenical mission.

Musharraf and Pakistan: Democracy Postponed

El-Khawas, M. A. — 2009-03-09

Following a 1999 coup, Pakistan's General Pervez Musharraf ruled by decree with the support of the military. He held a presidential referendum and got his party elected. He amended the constitution to legitimize his military rule. His involvement in the war on terrorism led to the rise of religious extremism, and he persuaded the United States to propose a power-sharing plan. In 2007, Musharraf got himself re-elected by the outgoing parliament, an election subsequently challenged in court. In November, he declared a state of emergency and dismissed Supreme Court justices whom he feared would rule against him. Under external pressure, he ended the emergency after he had secured the presidency and resigned from the military. In 2008, opposition parties won the parliamentary elections and formed a coalition government. They have not yet reinstated the dismissed judges. They forced Musharraf to resign, but more steps are needed to complete the transition to a true democracy.

Small Frontier Island: Malta and the Challenge of Irregular Immigration

Lutterbeck, D. — 2009-03-09

Located at the southernmost tip of Europe, just off the coast of Africa, Malta has during recent years increasingly come into the international spotlight as a frontline state for irregular migration from Africa toward the European Union. Even though, in absolute terms, the number of seaborne migrants landing on the island has been rather modest, given the country's small size and very high population density, illegal immigration has become one of Malta's top policy priorities, nationally as well as on the EU level, and it has been calling for more support and burden-sharing mechanisms from other EU countries. This essay offers a broad overview of the migration issue as it has been unfolding in Malta during recent years, ranging from the main trends in irregular immigration, asylum issues, and the country's strict and contested detention policy to integration issues and the growth in anti-immigrant movements in Malta.

Faruk Tabak: The Waning of the Mediterranean, 1550-1870: A Geohistorical Approach

Ewing, R. C. — 2009-03-09

Ron Suskind: The Way of the World: A Story of Truth and Hope in an Age of Extremism

Giraldi, P. M. — 2009-03-09

Christopher Deliso: The Coming Balkan Caliphate: The Threat of Radical Islam to Europe and the West

Carpenter, T. G. — 2009-03-09

Examining the Case for War: Allegations of Iranian Interference in Iraq

Giraldi, P. — 2008-12-08

Iran poses two fundamental challenges to the United States. First is its alleged program to develop a nuclear weapon, which is currently being negotiated and which might be managed and contained through concerted international action. Second, and more threatening in the long term, are its roles as a regional hegemon and as a participant in the political development of neighboring Iraq. Iran's policies in Iraq sometimes appear to be directly in conflict with US initiatives. In spite of considerable angry rhetoric, however, any actual evidence for Iranian hostile interaction in Iraq is highly speculative, and the White House has yet to make a case that Tehran's involvement is inappropriate or could serve as a casus belli.

International Law and Minority Protection: The Fate of the Greeks of Imbros and Tenedos

Coufoudakis, V. — 2008-12-08

In this essay a largely forgotten human rights issue involving the fate of the Greek-in-origin population that inhabited the Turkish islands of Imbros and Tenedos is examined. Exempted from the Greek-Turkish population-exchange agreements concluded following the end of World War I, the Greek population of the two islands was granted specific civic, cultural, and religious rights by the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne. The treaty remains valid to this day. Turkey deliberately violated the rights of this population because of its ethnicity, religion, and language. The author analyzes the methods used by Turkey to ethnically cleanse the two islands and the options available to the former residents of these islands as well as to the governments of Greece and Turkey to resolve the documented violations of the Treaty of Lausanne and of the European Convention on Human Rights.

Disarming Hezbollah

Talbot, B. J., Harriman, H. — 2008-12-08

Hezbollah has become a powerful yet destabilizing force in Lebanon, affecting internal stability, allowing Syria and Iran dangerous influence, delaying peace with Israel, and complicating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, it forces the United States to struggle between traditional support for Israel and newfound support for Lebanese democracy. The international community should capitalize on Hezbollah's damaged public image following its 2006 war with Israel and pursue a multiparty disarmament effort, to include incentives for the major regional players. The effort should address Hezbollah's continued presence in the Lebanese Parliament, international support for the Lebanese Armed Forces, return of the Golan to Syria in exchange for its cutting military support to Hezbollah, and a nonaggression agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

The Regional and International Implications of Kosovo Independence

Bardos, G. N. — 2008-12-08

The support of the United States and some European Union countries for Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence has in many ways contributed to a deterioration of the security situation in southeastern Europe. The fundamental strategic assumption of promoters of Kosovo's independence—that Kosovo was the last open question left over from the breakup of Yugoslavia—is likely to prove wrong. Thus, given the breakdown in the international and regional consensus on the contours of a legitimate Balkan political and security order, the instability of Kosovo and other states in the region is in reality likely to increase in the post-Kosovo independence period.

Greek-Bulgarian Relations in the Post-Cold War Era: Contributing to Stability and Development in Southeastern Europe

Voskopoulos, G. — 2008-12-08

The Balkan Peninsula has been an unstable regional security subsystem because of a number of defining and qualitative parameters, namely, overt or covert challenges to the territorial status, interethnic conflicts, the "great idea" syndrome, out-of-system interference, and minority expansionism. In the post–Cold War era, European Union enlargement in the area assisted the establishment of a core of systemic stabilizers that could, under certain conditions, absorb inherent instability. Greece and Bulgaria constitute an axis providing eufunctional input to the regional stability and security equation. Their partnership has been an example of inter-Balkan cooperation and an effort to establish an equilibrium mechanism to enhance the cohesion of the region.

The Time of Epithets

Binder, D. — 2008-12-08

When and how did the characterization nationalist become an epithet that indicates abuse or contempt? The most obvious advent of the new usage may be found in the journalism and academic writing about the civil wars (1991–95) that doomed the existence of Yugoslavia. Employing nationalist as a negative quantity was made even more explicit by attaching intensifying prefixes such as "ultra" or "extreme." Searches of newspaper and other archives show that nationalist as a denunciatory epithet has continued in the media to the present day, especially as applied to Serbian politicians. It has also begun to infect the discourse among the political parties in Serbia.

China's Ventures in Africa: Patterns, Prospects, and Implications for Africa's Development

Anyu, J. N., Ifedi, J.-P. A. — 2008-12-08

Africa has a long and disturbing history with outside powers exploiting the continent for its natural and human resources in furtherance of their own economic and developmental objectives. In this essay, China's main objectives and the prospects and implications these have on Africa's development are examined. The authors argue that there are two very important perspectives—exploitation and opportunity—on China's role in Africa's development. The authors also argue that African countries must implement meaningful structural and policy changes that could enable them to leverage China's involvement to enhance their development. Whether Chinese interest and involvement brings the danger of renewed exploitation without accompanying sustainable development depends on the extent to which African countries are able to take advantage of the opportunities of this growing interest and transform themselves by circumventing the many economic, political, and social contradictions that are afflicting them.

Kenya: The December 2007 Election Crisis

Ndungu, N. S. — 2008-12-08

In this essay the origins, dimensions, and implications of Kenya's election crisis of 2007 and the key actors who contributed to it are examined. The author reviews the efforts undertaken by the African Union and the former secretary-general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, and offers specific recommendations to prevent reoccurrence of turmoil in Kenya.

Yahia H. Zoubir and Haizam Amirah-Fernandez, editors: North Africa: Politics, Region, and the Limits of Transformation.

Dillery, C. E. — 2008-12-08

Nicholas J. Cull: The Cold War and the US Information Agency.

Roberts, W. R. — 2008-12-08